BRN bulls trying to stay above $80/bbl

After a sharp fall from $85/bbl, BRN bulls have managed to rebound slightly and are now trying to stabilize at around the $80/bbl psychological threshold.

Previously feared supply threats are now moderately “cooling off” as the risk of a wider conflict, involving major regional oil producers, is slowly dissipating.

Oil bears may have been spooked by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister who spoke out against speculators.

The ball is on the demand side now as investors are wary that a potential global economic slowdown may negatively affect the demand for “black gold”.

The major economic signals coming from China – world’s largest oil consumer, boosting the demand side fears include:

• A decrease in China’s oil refineries profit margins along with an increase in fuel stockpiles
   
• A lower-than-expected travel volume over the Golden Week holidays in China underlining a potential slowdown in consumer spending

On the other side of the pacific, a potential for the interest rates to be increased further down the road may be still on the Fed’s agenda.

Resorting to another policy tightening may significantly undermine US economic activity, thus altering the demand for oil.

From the technical perspective …

• RSI positioning at 33.60 (< 60 – oversold; >70 – overbought) may signal a potential for a technical rebound
   
• Brent currently trading way below the 21, 50 and 100-period SMA may indicate a strong downtrend on both the long & short-term horizon
   
• BRN bulls’ inability to maintain the price above $80/bbl psychological level may indicate a potential for a further downward movement towards the potential threshold at ~$70/bbl