BTC’s fate hinges on Powell’s testimony and US CPI

• BTC could see volatility as Powell testifies today
   
• BTC faces resistance at 200-day SMA
   
• Rate cut expectations may fuel current BTC rally
   
• CPI data tomorrow may impact BTC price movement

Bitcoin could experience significant volatility today as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the US Senate.

The cryptocurrency may have a second day of reprieve, just before tomorrow's data release just as a near 28% decline from its all-time high is set to break out of a 5-day channel to the upside.
 

It will, however, have to contend with its 200-day simple moving average which coincides with the former support of a broken symmetrical triangle, now acting as resistance.
 

This current rally may be connected to increased expectations of rate cuts in the US, as Bloomberg estimates show a 70% chance of rate cuts in September.

Notably, Bitcoin has behaved more as a risk asset since gaining ETF status early this year.
 

The crypto bulls, (those looking to see a Bitcoin rally) may be paying attention to the following
near-term resistance levels:

• 58 814 – The 200-day simple moving average
   
• 60 000 – A significant psychological price level
   
• 63 795 – The last significant swing high

Bitcoin bears however may be looking at the following near-term support levels:

• 53 000 – A significant round number price level
   
• 50 000 – A psychologically important price level

Furthermore, CPI data is due tomorrow and is expected to show:
 

• 3.1% year-on-year headline CPI (Jan 2024 vs. Jan 2023). If that 3.1 % forecast proves true, that would be notably lower than May’s 3.3% y/y number
   
• 3.4%  year-on-year core CPI (excluding food and energy prices, which tend to see bigger swings). If that 3.4% forecast proves true, that would be the same as May’s number
   
• 0.1% month-on-month CPI (June 2024 vs. May 2024). If that 0.1% forecast proves true, that would be higher than May's 0.0% m/m number
   
• 0.2% month-on-month core CPI (excluding food and energy prices, which tend to see bigger swings). If that 0.2% forecast proves true, that would match May’s 0.2% m/m core number