This Week: Central bank watch remains for AUD, SEK, CHF

• Tue, Sept 24: RBA set to leave cash rate unchanged

• Wed, Sept 25: Riksbank expected to trigger 25-bps cut

• Thur: Sept 26: SNB may be tempted into 50-bps rate cut shocker

• See below for forecasted trading ranges for AUDUSD, USDSEK, and USDCHF

If you think the central bank watch is over, think again.

The central bank decision train rolls along, albeit to a lesser influence relative to this past week’s lineup featuring the Fed, BOE, and BoJ.

This trading week will feature rate decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

Those trading these G10 currencies - AUD, SEK, and CHF - should remain attentive to the policy decisions and outlooks of the respective central banks.

Events Watchlist

• Tuesday, September 24th: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate decision

The RBA is widely expected to, yet again, leave its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%.  

Even if RBA Governor Michele Bullock were to reiterate policymakers’ hawkish stance, it’s Australia’s August CPI data due the day after (on Wed, Sept 25th) that could hold greater influence on whether the RBA can join its G10 peers in cutting rates.

Markets now predict a 65% chance of an RBA rate cut in December 2024.

AUDUSD is forecasted to trade between 0.6732 and 0.6911 over the coming week, as per the Bloomberg FX rate model.

• Wednesday, September 25th: Riskbank policy rate decision

Unlike the RBA, Sweden’s central bank is widely expected to proceed with yet another 25 basis point cut, as a follow up to its previous two rate cuts earlier this year.

Furthermore, markets widely expect Riksbank to cut rates further at each of its November and December meetings as well.

More dovish signals may keep USDSEK closer to the 10.3 upper bound rather than the 10.0 lower bound of its 1-week forecasted trading range, per Bloomberg.

• Thursday, September 26th: Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy rate decision

The SNB is also widely expected to lower its policy rate by at least another 25-basis points, with a 38% chance that policymakers could opt for a jumbo-sized 50-bps cut.

Recall that the SNB had already lowered its rates by 50-bps over two separate meetings back in March and June 2024.

However, note that the Swiss Franc is still the 2nd-strongest G10 currency against the US dollar so far in Q3 2024.

Hence, the SNB may be tempted to shock markets with an outsized 50-bps cut, either this week or at its final scheduled policy meeting of the year in December.

Ultra dovish cues may push USDCHF to the upper bound of its 0.84 - 0.86 forecasted trading range for the week.

And of course, over on the USD side of the above-listed FX pairs ...

Look out for the scheduled speeches by Fed officials as well as US economic data releases that could shift market expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, September 23

• NZD: New Zealand August trade balance
• SG20 index: Singapore August CPI
• TWN index: Taiwan August unemployment
• EU50 index: Eurozone September PMIs
• GBP: UK September PMIs
• USD index: US September PMIs; speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Tuesday, September 24

• JP225 index: Japan September PMIs
• AUD: RBA rate decision
• TWN index: Taiwan August export orders
• GER40 index: Germany September business climate
• Brent/Crude: OPEC releases annual World Oil Outlook
• RUS2000 index: US September consumer confidence

Wednesday, September 25

• CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
• AU200 index: Australia August CPI
• SEK: Riksbank policy rate decision
• TWN index: Taiwan August industrial production

Thursday, September 26

• JPY: BoJ meeting minutes
• SG20 index: Singapore August industrial production
• CHF: SNB policy rate decision
• US500 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; US 2Q GDP (final)
• USD index: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, New York Fed President John Williams, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Friday, September 27

• JPY: Tokyo September CPI; LDP internal elections
• CN50 index: China August industrial profits
• EUR: Eurozone September economic confidence; Germany September unemployment
• US400 index: US August PCE, personal income and spending
• USD index: Speeches by Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler